Recent study, published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Journal, predicts severe negative climate change impacts on Arabica coffee production
in Africa. The results of another research, based on global circulation models,
suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in America and
Asia.
By 2050, yields of Arabica bean – which accounts for 75 percent of the coffee produced worldwide – in some countries are expected to fall by up to 25 percent, what could send prices soaring over the next few decades.
By 2050, yields of Arabica bean – which accounts for 75 percent of the coffee produced worldwide – in some countries are expected to fall by up to 25 percent, what could send prices soaring over the next few decades.
Steadily increasing night-time temperatures have the
greatest impact. Temperature bracket ranging between 18 to 21°C is most
comfortable for the crop. Outside of this temperature bracket the plant’s
metabolic processes begin to change, what subsequently has a negative impact on
yield and quality. 1°C rise in minimum temperature will result in annual
yield drop by up to 60%.
Yields are already 50% lower in Tanzania, for
example, than they were in 1960. Without substantial adaptation
strategies, coffee production can drop to critical levels in the country, where
coffee is most important export crop and industry directly
supports an estimated 2.4 million individuals.
