UNFCCC's COP 28: main outcomes and failures

 The 28th  conference under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came at a critical moment in time, with 2023 set to be the warmest year on record and the impacts of climate change rapidly accelerating. International climate change negotiations at the COP28 conference in Dubai concluded on 13 December 2023.

Below are the main outcomes and failures of the COP 28:

IPCC about potential climate change adaptation and mitigation options

In its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), IPCC integrates the contributions and findings of the three Working Groups. Compared with previous IPCC assessments, there is a greater focus on problem solutions, more regional information, and more integration across Working Groups. IPCC's AR6 states that world needs fast transitions across all sectors and systems to achieve deep and sustained emissions reductions and secure sustainable future for all.

The agreement on the EU Emissions Trading System and the Social Climate Fund

 The European Council and the European Parliament reached a provisional political agreement on legislative proposals of the ‘Fit for 55’ package that will allow the EU to reduce its net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels and to achieve climate neutrality in 2050 while making sure the most vulnerable citizens and micro-enterprises are effectively supported in the climate transition.

The Council and Parliament agreed to increase the overall ambition of emissions reductions by 2030 in the sectors covered by the EU ETS to 62%.

The pathway to climate leadership for the United States

These 21 GHG reduction policies may allow cutting total emissions in the U.S. by 48 percent in 2030, and by 95 percent in 2050, relative to 2010 levels.

Source: energyinnovation.org

Simulations conducted by Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology LLC have identified policies across all economic sectors to achieve the IPCC’s recommended GHG reductions required to limit global warming to 1.5C.

The U.S. Energy Policy Simulator, an open-source and non-partisan computer model developed by Energy Innovation, has designed a policy scenario that achieves the IPCC’s recommended emissions reductions.

Have countries done enough to meet their climate action promises made five years ago in Paris?

 Unfortunately, according to BloombergNEF, the world's biggest #GHG emitters still are far behind in terms of implementing policies and actions to meet their #ParisAgreement commitments...

BloombergNews

European Commission raised Europe’s 2030 climate ambition

UPDATED.  On October 6, the European Parliament voted to increase the EU’s climate target for 2030, supporting a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the decade, up from 40% currently. It is impressive that the adopted target is higher than one earlier proposed by the European Commission (55%)!

 EU-wide net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of at least 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels was proposed by EC on September 17.  Achieving of this level of ambition for the next decade will put the EU on a balanced pathway to reaching climate neutrality by 2050 but will require action in all sectors of the economy (see diagram below).

A comprehensive Impact Assessment of the social, economic, and environmental impacts demonstrates that this course of action is realistic and feasible.

CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU, and together with fugitive non-CO2 emissions in the energy system, they are responsible for over 75% of EU greenhouse gas emissions.

Can China become carbon neutral by 2060?

The world's biggest polluter of greenhouse gases China  has pledged to go carbon neutral by 2060 during the United Nations General Assembly in New York  on Sep 22. It's the first time China has issued concrete plans to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions. If achieved, this could curb likely global warming by 0.2-0.3 Celsius this century.

China has not yet revealed details of how it will do this. But a research group at Tsinghua University presented a $15 trillion, 30-year road map on 27 September that calls for ending the use of coal for electricity generation around 2050, dramatically increasing nuclear and renewable power generation, and relying on electricity for 80% of China’s energy consumption by 2060.

Governments are planning to produce 50% more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with a 2°C pathway...

...,  and by 120% more than would be consistent with a 1.5°C pathway. Coal production planning is above numbers compatible with the climate goals by 150% and 280%, respectively.

These numbers are pointing at a huge challenge of  bringing the use of fossil fuels in line with climate goals, states The Production Gap report published by a group of leading research organisations supported by UNEP.

According to IEA, coal, oil, and natural gas remain the world’s dominant sources of energy accounting for 81% of total primary energy supply. These fuels are a source of over 75% of global GHG emissions, including about 90% of all CO2  emissions. IPCC estimates that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will need to decline rapidly, by approximately 6% per year to remain on a 1.5°C-compatible pathway, and by roughly 2% per year to remain on a 2°C-compatible one. 

How to boost the transition to low carbon technologies?

Source: UK BEIS, 2019

Luck of the strategic incentives is an important reason behind the slow progress in the transition to low carbon technologies. Three major overlapping transition phases may explain where and how technological transition actually occurs: emergence of new technology, diffusion through markets, and reconfiguration of socioeconomic systems.
Based on the detailed analysis of these transitional phases, authors of the report Accelerating the Low Carbon Transition considered ten key economic sectors (see above figure) in a broad sense, including not just the technology and its production, but also the systems of its use, financing, ownership, infrastructure and governance.
The key message for policymakers on a national level is that it is not enough just put a price on carbon or adopt ambitious emissions reduction goals.

European Green Deal: putting Europe on track to reach net-zero global warming emissions by 2050

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced hotly anticipated European Green Deal on 11 October 2019,  and on 11 December she outlined a long list of policy initiatives to support Green Deal, including major policy area:

Clean energy - Opportunities for alternative, cleaner sources of energy

Sustainable industry - Ways to ensure more sustainable, more environmentally respectful production cycles

Building and renovating - The need for a cleaner construction sector

Outcomes of UN Climate Action Summit in New York

United Nations Climate Action Summit, which was held in New York on September 23, 2019, boosted climate action momentum, and demonstrated growing recognition that the pace of climate action must be rapidly accelerated.
 Among major outcomes of the Summit:

• 65 countries and  sub-national economies committed to cut GHG emissions to net zero by 2050
• Over 100 business leaders delivered concrete actions to align with the Paris Agreement targets,  including asset-owners holding over $2 trillion in assets and leading companies with combined value also over $2 trillion

Ecopreneur Circular Economy Update report 2019

Ecopreneur.eu published the report with an overview of circular economy policies in all EU member states. Combining the Circular Economy Monitoring Framework of the European Commission with available rankings, databases and reports, Ecopreneur presents 28 country profiles using a combination of available quantitative data and qualitative information to highlight specific indicators covering various aspects of the circular economy.

What are the major outcomes of COP 23?

The official  UNFCCC’s press release on November 17, 2017 lists over 30 concrete climate action commitments at COP23.

Couple month later, Climate Institute in the publication COP23: A Critical Assessment of the Conference’s Outcomes provides an overview of the most important outcomes of the negotiations, highlighting the main drawbacks and achievements.

Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change combines carbon price and output-based credit

In recent publication Technical paper: federal carbon pricing backstop, Canadian Government proposes combination of carbon price and output-based credit to reduce GHG emissions and address the business competitiveness problem at the same time.

Energy Efficiency Investment Toolkit presents a new perspective on boosting investments

The G20's Energy Efficiency Investment Toolkit, published by International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation, provides a set of collaborative and voluntary options for G20 countries to boost energy efficiency investments and realize the significant economic, environmental and social benefits of energy efficiency in their economies. 

Pembina Institute proposes ‘low-carbon transition’ pathway for buildings in British Columbia

Recommendations published by the Pembina Institute are based on discussions during the two days forum attended by over 120 participants from 90 organizations. Experts proposed that the building sector in British Columbia should aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the operation of buildings by 40-50% below 2007 levels by 2030, and 80-100% by 2050.

Investment stimulated by market-based instruments for energy efficiency has risen six-fold over the last ten years

IEA published the first global overview of market-based instruments (MBIs) for energy efficiency, such as auctions, energy efficiency obligations on utilities and white certificate programmes. Contrary to other policy instruments, MBIs allow market actors to choose the measures and delivery routes that provide the most cost-effective way to achieve the outcomes set out by policy makers.

OECD report: current carbon prices are too low to ensure needed GHG emissions reduction

The OECD released the report about pricing CO2 through taxes and emissions trading systems, which presents a new data on “effective carbon rates” on CO2-emissions for energy use across six economic sectors in 41 countries. The study analyzed OECD countries responsible for some 80 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions and found a major gap between current carbon pricing policies and what should be the minimum estimated cost for carbon given its climate impact.

Report on climate change impacts and costs in Europe

Report, published by European Environment Agency, shows that climate change is already having wide-ranging impacts on ecosystems, economic sectors and human health and well-being in Europe. Climate change is affecting all regions in Europe, but the impacts are not uniform. Most impacts of climate change across Europe have been adverse, although some impacts have been beneficial.

IEA's webinar: The Outlook for Renewable Energy

The lead authors of World Energy Outlook 2016 presented their views on current status and future of renewables, which were the subject of a special focus in this year’s Outlook.
Significant increase of renewable capacity in the power sector, which exceeded coal, gas, oil. and nuclear combined, as well as fast growth of EVs on the road to over 1 million vehicles are among the most impressive achievements in renewable energy in 2015.