IEA proposes technological and policy pathways allowing transition to a net zero energy system by 2050

The energy sector is the source of about 75% of GHG emissions today and holds the key to preventing the worst effects of climate change.

In its recent report NET ZERO BY 2050: A ROADMAP FOR THE GLOBAL ENERGY SECTOR, IEA proposes technological and policy pathways allowing transition to a net zero energy system by 2050 while ensuring stable and affordable energy supplies, providing universal energy access, and enabling robust economic growth.

The path to net-zero emissions is challenging: staying on it requires immediate and intensive deployment of all available clean and efficient energy technologies.

IRENA presented the outline of World Energy Transitions Outlook till 2050

 Recently published preview of IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook presents an outline of the global strategies towards carbon-neutrality and leads way to a climate-safe 1.5°C pathway by 2050.

It is projected that over 70% of all decarbonization solutions will involve renewable energy through the direct supply of low-cost power, efficiency, renewable-powered electrification in end-use. Carbon capture and removal technologies in combination with bioenergy will deliver the ‘remaining reductions towards a net-zero energy system.

More than 80% of global new electricity capacity added last year were renewables

Over 260 GW of renewable energy capacity were added last year worldwide, exceeding expansion in 2019 by close to 50%, despite the economic slowdown that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic. Renewables account for 80% of all new electricity capacity added last year, with solar and wind representing 91% of new renewables, according to the recent report by IRENA.

The 10.3% rise in installed renewable capacity reflects expansion that beats long-term trends of more modest growth year-on-year.

Global CO2 emissions are rebounding to pre-pandemic levels

According to the Global Carbon Project, world's fossil CO2-related emissions have dropped by about 2.6 GtCO2 in 2020 to 34 GtCO2 (see figure below). This  decrease, which is equivalent to EU's annual GHG emissions, was caused mainly by the measures taken to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is about 7% below 2019 levels, while, in most countries, daily emissions decreased at the peak of the country’s lockdown by on average 27%.

The pathway to climate leadership for the United States

These 21 GHG reduction policies may allow cutting total emissions in the U.S. by 48 percent in 2030, and by 95 percent in 2050, relative to 2010 levels.

Source: energyinnovation.org

Simulations conducted by Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology LLC have identified policies across all economic sectors to achieve the IPCC’s recommended GHG reductions required to limit global warming to 1.5C.

The U.S. Energy Policy Simulator, an open-source and non-partisan computer model developed by Energy Innovation, has designed a policy scenario that achieves the IPCC’s recommended emissions reductions.

Energy efficiency is not sufficient for the transition to low carbon buildings

 Energy efficiency, which reduces only buildings' operational carbon footprint, is not enough for transition to low carbon buildings.

67-76% of the total buildings' GHG emissions are embodied, i.e. associated with the extraction, transportation, and manufacture of materials and elements, as well as with construction processes and services.
The report [https://lnkd.in/gfYRHc4] published by Architects Climate Action Network proposes a set of policies, regulations, and actions to be urgently adopted for the dramatic reduction of embodied carbon emissions in the UK.
According to World Green Building Council [https://lnkd.in/g2nXm8J], currently, buildings account for 39% of energy-related global CO2 emissions.
Architecture 2030 estimates that new construction creates more than 3.7 billion metric tons of embodied carbon emissions annually [https://lnkd.in/gACCNx2].

Have countries done enough to meet their climate action promises made five years ago in Paris?

 Unfortunately, according to BloombergNEF, the world's biggest #GHG emitters still are far behind in terms of implementing policies and actions to meet their #ParisAgreement commitments...

BloombergNews

Alberta's goal is to eliminate coal-fired electricity production by 2023, ahead of 2030 provincial deadline

 In 2014, 55%  of Alberta’s electricity was produced from 18 coal-fired generators. The Alberta government announced in 2015 it would eliminate emissions from coal power generation by 2030.

Provincial electric utility Capital Power Corp. plans to spend nearly $1 billion to switch two coal-fired power units west of Edmonton to natural gas and stop using coal entirely. Capital Power expects that direct carbon dioxide emissions at its Genesee power facility will be about 3.4 million tonnes per year lower than 2019 emission levels when the project is complete. The natural gas combined cycle units will be the most efficient in Canada, and they will be capable of running on 30% hydrogen initially, with the option to run on 95% hydrogen in the future with minor investments.

The growing cost-competitiveness of renewable energy makes coal plant retirements possible, due to Capital Power’s plans to increase its investments in solar power.

Calgary-based TransAlta Corp. said it will end operations at its Highvale thermal coal mine west of Edmonton by the end of 2021 as it switches to natural gas at all of its operating coal-fired plants in Canada by four years earlier than previously planned.  The Highvale surface coal mine is the largest in Canada and has been in operation since 1970.

Source: globalnews.ca

Electric and hybrid car sales reached almost 90% of total September car sales in Norway

 ... and the country leads the world in the percentage of electric and hybrid cars on its roads (see the chart below). 

The monthly cost of owning a mid-sized electric car in Norway averaged over a four-year period ($883)  is substantially lower than for petrol ($1,002) and diesel ($1,075)  cars. The costs include fuel, depreciation, taxes, insurance, and maintenance.

While in 2019 the total world's electric car stock was around 7.5 million, or just 1.5-2% of the total world's car stock, continuously decreasing battery prices together with undeniable environmental benefits will inevitably lead to hybrid and electric car domination all around the world within the next couple of decades.

European Commission raised Europe’s 2030 climate ambition

UPDATED.  On October 6, the European Parliament voted to increase the EU’s climate target for 2030, supporting a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the decade, up from 40% currently. It is impressive that the adopted target is higher than one earlier proposed by the European Commission (55%)!

 EU-wide net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of at least 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels was proposed by EC on September 17.  Achieving of this level of ambition for the next decade will put the EU on a balanced pathway to reaching climate neutrality by 2050 but will require action in all sectors of the economy (see diagram below).

A comprehensive Impact Assessment of the social, economic, and environmental impacts demonstrates that this course of action is realistic and feasible.

CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU, and together with fugitive non-CO2 emissions in the energy system, they are responsible for over 75% of EU greenhouse gas emissions.